Keir Starmer is bracing for an election nightmare in London as a new mega-poll shows Labor ‘under fire from all sides’ – and the Greens will have a great night

A new mega-poll in London has warned that Labor is now ‘under fire’ from all sides, amid a huge wave of support for the Green Party and Reform.

More in Common conducted a ground-breaking MRP survey in the capital, asking 2,646 adults how they plan to vote over a three-week period.

The findings will cause gloom in Downing Street as it shows Labour’s support has collapsed by 15 points since the general election, while the Greens have risen by 10 points.

While Labor is still in the lead in the city of nine million, support stands at just 28%.

The Green Party is now breathing down Labor’s neck with 20% and is on course to win the highest vote share in a London borough for the first time.

It finds that Zack Polanski’s party is now the most popular party in Hackney, with a three-point lead, and within two points of Labor in Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham.

The insurgent left party is also expected to come second to Labor in 16 boroughs, coming within five points of the ruling party in five of them.

Keir Starmer’s last-minute campaign efforts appear not to have convinced crucial swing voters

This would put Polanski’s party within reach of controlling almost a third of the capital in the next set of local elections in London, if it continues to gain support at Labour’s expense.

Reform UK has surged in the London suburbs and is expected to take a nine-point lead in the Havering election.

In Bexley, the leafy south-eastern suburb once represented in Parliament by Ted Heath, reform is now neck and neck with the Conservatives.

Nigel Farage’s party will also give the Tories a bloody nose in Bromley, with up to 21.3% of the vote.

The right-wing party has also risen to 24% in Barking and Dagenham, where Labor won all seats in 2022.

While Keir Starmer has the most to lose in the capital on Thursday, the Conservatives are also in for a nail-biting evening.

Kemi Badenoch’s party is on course to be reduced to a handful of strongholds on the outskirts of London, with a leading position in just five boroughs: Bexley, Bromley, Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea.

The Green Party is expected to secure 20% of the vote, just a few points less than Labour, and come first in up to four boroughs.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage has campaigned heavily in rural suburbs such as Bexley and Bromley, stealing votes from the Conservatives.

The party’s hopes of surprise wins in Westminster and Wandsworth appear to be dashed as they still trail Labor by 11 points and 7 points respectively.

Despite making virtually no progress in the capital since the last series of local elections, the Liberal Democrats will still remain dominant in the poshest parts of south-west London, including Richmond, Kingston and Sutton.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, explained: ‘The 2026 election will show that the capital is not immune to the electoral fragmentation that has rocked politics across the country.

‘Former Labor strongholds look set to make big gains for the Greens, with the potential for the party to gain control or emerge as the largest party in a whole swath of London.

‘As the Greens advance in Labor heartlands, Reform looks set to do the same in London suburbs such as Bexley, which were previously safe from the Conservatives.

‘If you add in the Independents’ gains, the London election map we see on May 8 could well look completely unrecognizable compared to what we have become accustomed to.’

A Labor source told the Mail: ‘The Greens would lead to chaos in the capital. Zack Polanski has the wrong plan for London, and the wrong plan for Britain.

‘We will continue to fight for every vote. The only poll that matters on Thursday, May 7.’