Keir Starmer faces a Muslim voter crisis as a poll shows more than half will vote tactically to kick Labor out this Thursday – with support falling from 80% to just 33%

Labor is likely to see its Muslim voters drift away in local elections, a damning new poll has found.

Three in five British Muslim voters would consider supporting a pro-Gaza independent party to prevent Labor from winning, while almost half would consider backing Zack Polanski’s Greens if he sends a message to the government.

New findings from the Policy Exchange think tank show that anti-Labor sentiment among Muslims has increased in key battleground areas, fueled by anger over the handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.

Keir Starmer sparked a huge controversy after appearing to say Israel had the ‘right’ to cut off water and energy supplies to Gaza, something he later insisted was not his position.

His party has seen previously fervent Muslim support collapse since 2019, when it won 80% of the community’s vote under Jeremy Corbyn.

In the run-up to the 2024 general election, support levels were estimated to have fallen by 20% nationally, and even further in some constituencies.

The Gorton and Denton by-election in February now appears to have been a crucial warning sign for Labour, in an area with a 28% Muslim population.

Under Polanski’s outspoken pro-Palestinian leadership, the Green Party was accused of waging a cynical “sectarian” campaign on the issue of the Gaza war, but recorded a surprise victory with a swing of 26.4%.

Labour’s support among Muslim voters has collapsed since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023

About half of Muslims in the areas surveyed are willing to support the Greens to defeat Labor, with this percentage rising to 60% and saying the same of Gaza independent candidates

The Greens have now secured 27% support among Muslim voters, 10 points higher than the party’s polling average in the general election.

And the Policy Exchange survey appears to indicate that what Keir Starmer called Donald Trump “pandering” to Muslim voters – in refusing to join US-Israeli attacks on Iran – has failed to reverse declining support.

The Policy Exchange poll also raises further worrying questions about the integrity of the British democratic process, revealing that a seventh of Muslims in the areas surveyed had their vote collected by post by a campaigner, a practice made illegal in 2022, almost twice the number of voters overall.

The poll surveyed more than a thousand British Muslim voters from Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire and Merseyside.

The think tank reports that a huge divide has opened up between Muslim voters and the rest of the population, with them five times as likely as the average Briton to say their vote next Thursday will be determined by the conflict between Israel and Gaza.

One in four Muslim voters say this will determine who they support at the ballot box, compared to just 5% of the rest of the population.

The survey also found that 25% of British Muslims have a favorable view of Hamas, compared to 28% who have an unfavorable view.

Support for Labor among Muslims had already fallen to 60% by the 2024 general election

Muslim support for Labor reached a recent high of 80% under Jeremy Corbyn during the 2019 general election

Similarly, more British Muslims have a favorable than unfavorable opinion of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite expectations that Britain will soon designate it a terrorist organization.

One in four Muslim voters also said they believe violence could be a legitimate response to someone burning the Quran, or to displaying or creating an image of Muhammad, more than 2.5 times more than the general public.

The think tank’s findings shed further light on views among British Muslims about the Jewish community, with 45% of respondents saying they believe Jews have too much power over the media, and 39% saying they have too much power over parliament.

About 21% admitted they feel “unfavorably” toward the Jewish people, compared to 11% of the broader electorate.

Dr. Rakib Ehsan, lead author of Policy Exchange’s new report ‘Understanding Islamopopulism’, warned that the data shows Labor will be ‘punished’ by Muslim voters.

He explained: ‘The data shows that the Labor Party is on course to be further punished by British Muslims in the English local elections, with a wave of independent Muslim candidates likely to be elected in cities such as Birmingham and towns such as Blackburn, along with a number of London boroughs including Newham.

‘The new polling also shows that there are fundamental differences between the wider general population and British Muslims living in parts of England where integration problems persist. This is especially poignant when it comes to the extent to which Israel-Gaza is being prioritized as an issue in decisions about how to vote in the upcoming local elections.

‘Among British Muslims living in the areas surveyed, there are worrying levels of anti-Semitic conspiratorial beliefs and support for the criminalization of blasphemy. The findings show that Britain is far from a stable multi-faith democracy.”

Commenting on the findings, Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the Daily Mail: ‘This research is further evidence of the worrying rise of separatism and sectarianism in our society.

“As Kemi Badenoch has said, identity politics is a dead end, whatever form it takes. It divides people instead of bringing them together.

“A cohesive culture that sticks together must be built on shared values, not special grievances and peer pressure.”