EUAN McCOLM: John Swinney’s SNP leadership is time-limited – here’s why the division he wants to stoke could be overshadowed by a brutal battle to replace him

John Swinney has finally dropped the pretense that he cares about the concept of democracy.

For years the Prime Minister wanted us to believe that he and the SNP represented a new kind of politics that brought decision-making closer to the people.

Well, all that nonsense is finally over now.

As Scots prepare to vote in the seventh Holyrood election on Thursday, we can have no doubt that Mr Swinney’s concern for the democratic good health of our nation has always been performative.

In an interview published on Monday, the Prime Minister made it clear that – despite the fact that a minority of Scots support independence – his first act in government, should he return to office, will be to push for a second vote on breaking up Britain.

Asked whether he expected talks with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to begin immediately, he said this would be necessary because “there must be recognition of the democratic wishes of the Scottish people.”

Aides to the Prime Minister had previously said he will push for Indyref2 even if his party needs the support of the Greens to form a majority at Holyrood.

Mr Swinney’s support for the ‘recognition of the democratic wishes’ of Scots is somewhat erratic.

John Swinney is determined to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence

Neither he nor any of his colleagues in the SNP government ever acknowledged, even for a second, that the democratic wish of Scots in 2014 was to be part of Britain.

Mr Swinney walked past the referendum defeat on the street without recognizing it. Instead, he and his party doubled down in a brutal battle for a new vote on secession.

The Scots’ decision was ignored while Mr Swinney, former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and other senior SNP figures told voters they were in fact supporting independence. For almost twelve years, the SNP has been promising its supporters a second referendum that the Scottish government has no power to do and that the majority of voters do not want.

And while nationalists – whether under Nicola Sturgeon, her successor Humza Yousaf or Mr Swinney – have turned their attention to constitutional issues, standards in public services have collapsed.

Scotland’s NHS is in crisis; the level of literacy and numeracy among children is unacceptably low; and the costs of multi-million pound projects, such as new hospitals or ferries, have spiraled out of control under the watch of incompetent ministers.

It remains possible that the Unionist majority of Scots will, through tactical voting, remove the SNP from office.

Not only would that be in the best interests of the country – the SNP’s record makes that overwhelmingly clear – but it would do the party good for the world.

Talk to any Scottish nationalist in the middle of the campaign and he or she will tell you that the party is bursting with confidence and ideas.

But if you find yourself in the company of a former SNP politician, chances are you’ll hear a different story.

In recent years, a number of ex-ministers and other high-ranking nationalists have revealed to me their belief that their party needs to be out of power for a while to freshen up.

“Think of it this way,” says a former senior SNP figure. ‘At the 2024 general election we were selling a message about how this was people’s chance to finally get rid of the Tories after fourteen years. The first part of that message was of course that they are Tories and that always resonates with our voters, but the second part of the message was that they had been in power for so long that we all needed a break.

“We’re just 19 years old and it’s clear we’re tired.”

But still Mr Swinney continues to bluff, claiming his party has the answers to the problems that have arisen and worsened under her watch.

Perhaps the clearest example of the distance between reality and the SNP’s rhetoric is the party’s announcement of a plan for the first 100 days under an SNP government.

That the first hundred days took place in 2007 (and since then there have been almost seven thousand days of SNP government) seems to have escaped Mr Swinney.

Even if the Prime Minister wins a majority this week, he is unlikely to negotiate anything with the British government for long.

Until Yousaf resigned in 2024, Mr Swinney planned to withdraw from frontline politics. Three decades in the heat of battle was enough, thanks anyway.

Since returning to government, Mr Swinney has tried to convince the country that he is back for the long haul. Should he lead the SNP to victory, he says, his intention is to see the next parliament as FM.

Of course he does. No party leader dares to take the risk of participating in elections without fully committing to his role.

But the fact remains that Mr. Swinney is considered a caretaker by colleagues.

His return to leadership is a hiccup, a kink in the natural order, which will soon be corrected. Waiting in the wings are two ambitious young SNP politicians who, according to many party insiders, will soon vie for the leadership.

The unimpressive Housing Secretary Mairi McAllan is said to be Swinney’s preferred successor, speculation fueled by his decision to send her in his place to a recent edition of Question Time with Scottish Party leaders.

If Ms McAllan holds her ground, she can expect a challenge from Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, who is on course to win a Holyrood seat on Thursday.

Combative and politically astute, Mr Flynn divides opinion within the SNP Holyrood group. Some see him as the party’s best hope, while others dismiss him as arrogant and uncooperative.

There is an acceptance in the upper echelons of the SNP that John Swinney’s leadership is time-limited.

Housing Minister Mairi McAllan would be John Swinney’s favorite successor

He is accidentally a prime minister, brought in to steady the nationalist ship, and the next generation is eager for change.

Tensions are already rising between Ms. McAllan’s allies and Mr. Flynn.

It is currently difficult to find a Scottish Government source with much good to say about Mr Flynn.

Conversely, praise for Ms. McAllan falls away.

Party insiders backing both potential candidates agree that Mr Swinney will have to clarify a succession strategy shortly after the election.

If he doesn’t make it clear, says one senior MSP, how the next generation can get ahead, ‘the next generation will just rise up and follow after him’.

Next week, Mairi McAllan and Stephen Flynn will sit together on the SNP benches, each eyeing the prize of becoming Scotland’s next First Minister.

If Mr Swinney wins this election, he wants to plunge Scotland deeper into the chaos of an endless constitutional debate.

But the bitterness and division that John Swinney wants to stoke could soon be overshadowed by a brutal battle to replace him.