The ‘Meh elections’…Scotland voters are the least enthusiastic in Britain after 19 years of SNP government
Scotland is heading for a ‘Meh election’ with Britain’s voters the least enthusiastic after 19 years of SNP rule, according to a leading pollster.
More in Common director Luke Tryl said Scots thought most potential outcomes, from an SNP majority to a reform-led government, would be bad.
He told an online event: ‘In Scotland, voter disillusionment is likely to define this election.
‘With widespread dissatisfaction towards incumbents in both Holyrood and Westminster – and no clear candidate for change – we see widespread apathy and resignation.
‘Expect record fragmentation [of the vote] and possibly low turnout.”
He said that despite ostensibly Unionist parties being on course for their largest overall vote share since 1999, the SNP were on course to victory as their opponents were divided.
“The SNP is benefiting from the fragmentation on the Unionist side,” he said, adding that John Swinney was on the verge of winning 60 MSPs, five short of a majority, despite three-fifths of voters opposing the Nationalists.
The Scottish Tories have long warned that a vote to reform Britain risks propelling the SNP to victory.
More in Common director Luke Tryl said Scots believed most potential outcomes of the election would be bad
Mr Tryl said: ‘What struck me in the Scottish focus groups was how unenthusiastic people were about this election.
‘This feeling of ‘meh’: we have an unpopular sitting government in Westminster, we have a tired government in Holyrood.
“I would definitely say I’ve seen the most unenthusiastic people about an election in the time I’ve been doing this.
“Normally, at least, people are motivated by getting someone else out or getting their company in.” You see very little of that in Scotland.’
He identified ‘SNP fatigue’, with the party widely seen as ‘lacking ideas’ and a ‘complacent and excessive incumbent’.
Mr Swinney was even seen by many nationalists as ‘a decent man’, but without ‘fire in his belly’.
More in Common’s analysis puts Reform in second place with 22 seats, with Labor at risk of falling to its worst ever Holyrood result with 13 MSPs.
There was bad news for Malcolm Offord, the Scottish Reform leader, who stunned a TV debate last month by revealing he has ‘six boats, five cars and six houses’.
According to the leading pollster, John Swinney is even seen by many nationalists as having no ‘fire in his belly’
Mr Tryl said 44 per cent of Scots thought the comments reflected poorly on Lord Offord, compared to 23 per cent who said they gave him credit.
Asked whether Lord Offord was a hindrance rather than an asset, Mr Tryl said he was “not the best person to take advantage” of the party’s promise of change.
He added, “Someone like [Glasgow councillor] Thomas Kerr might have broadened Reform’s appeal.
‘With other leaders, like John Swinney, people say, ‘I like him.’ I’ve never heard that about Malcolm Offord [in a focus group]. So I don’t think he’s particularly helped.’
Only 11 percent of all Scottish voters and just 30 percent of Scottish Reform voters had a ‘positive view’ of Lord Offord, with most ‘not aware of him or have no opinion about him’.
A Reform spokesperson said: ‘If Scottish voters feel uninspired it’s because they have to listen to the same tired establishment parties that have let them down for years.
‘Reform UK is the antidote to that apathy. Malcolm Offord’s message about rewarding ambition is exactly what the country needs after years of SNP failure.”
An SNP spokesperson said: ‘Only the SNP stands on Scotland’s side, while the trusted and reliable leadership of John Swinney is fixated on the priorities of the Scottish people.’